Alpha Lives in Mid & Small; Large Is Idiosyncratic | NVDA featured

Welcome to everyone! 

This is a dispersion tape, not a direction tape. Greens cluster where execution and platform economics rule—Industrials and platform-led Tech/Comm Services—while oranges/reds concentrate in rate-sensitives, peripheral/PC-tilted tech, and promo-dependent consumer. By cap tier, Small and Mid show the cleanest gradients; Large is constructive but idiosyncratic—you’re paid for single-name selection, not sector beta.

On the right tail, quality is loud: POWL (95%), BV (94%), LQDT (92%), EH (91%) with marine support from SBLK (82%), ESEA (80%); in Mid, backlog and pricing power translates into green for ESLT (93%), JJSF (90%), ROAD (90%), AS (88%), ENR (87%), BZ (85%). Large caps lean green where platform economics dominate—ZTO (94%), NTES (88%), BABA (82%), BIDU (78%), TCOM (75%), XP (76%). Common threads: backlog visibility, mix discipline, cost control—the trio that powers post-print drift when guidance confirms.

Risks are equally visible. Small-cap left tail is centered on funding/unit-economics: HGEN (16%), NCL (21%), SBEV (28%), SOAR / ASPI (29%). Mid-cap miss risk sits with GLBE (32%), ZKH (32%), XPEV (36%), where operating leverage and refinancing bite. At the top end, beware “soft-green” complacency in the 58–65% band—NVDA (65%), VEEV / MDT / PANW (63%), INTU (60%), WMT (59%), TJX (58%), DE (64%)—where a light miss plus cautious guide can drive multiple compression.

By sector, Industrials carry the execution premium (contractors/logistics/shipping). Tech/Comm is two-tone (compute / platforms green; peripherals / long-tail software amber / red). Consumer is a barbell—ENR/BRBR, JJSF/LZB vs GLBE and micro-cap “story” names; Financials split with lenders/processors steadier than consumer credit; Health Care favors platforms over binary biotech.

Looking ahead: catalysts (NVDA, PANW, VEEV, INTU, WMT, TJX, DE, MDT) are guide-led, not print-led. In software/security, the market pays for visibility & pricing power and punishes fuzzy FY26 talk. In retail, promo intensity, inventory, and mix set December revisions. In AI compute, NVDA’s supply cadence and customer breadth are the fulcrum for platform sentiment. With rates likely in a longer pause, focus shifts to balance-sheet stamina, refinancing windows, and execution credibility. In this regime, focus on the spreads—not the index.

Featured Stock of the Week — NVIDIA (NVDA) - Nov 19

NVDA sits in our guide-sensitive band with a 60% beat probability, which means the print can land. Still, the reaction will hinge on the quality of the guide—supply cadence, customer breadth, mix (accelerators vs. networking/software), and FX/China headwinds. 

The Cmind daily EPS Predictor score time-series shows three distinct moves: (1) a summer step-up from the mid-60s into the mid-80s as datapoints on backlog/ship timing firmed; (2) an early-October spike into the low-to-mid-90s that plateaued for several sessions on strong peer read-throughs and capacity headlines; and (3) a reset from late October into mid-November back toward the mid-60s after incremental chatter on export restrictions, shipment phasing, and risk-off positioning—followed by brief bounces that failed near 80% before fading again into this week. 

Our highest-weight drivers are Beat/Miss momentum two quarters back, working-capital quality (e.g., Current Assets/Capitalized Expenses), and profitability ratios (Operating Profit/Sales, Gross Profit/Sales, Cash/OP) that all screen top-quartile vs. peers. This mix argues that the core earnings engine is intact, even as near-term guidance precision becomes the fulcrum. 

Language analytics add nuance: CFO tone has trended more constructive vs. prior quarters, while sell-side language has softened, creating a useful “expectations gap” into the event. With the 11/19 after-close release and consensus EPS near $1.17 in focus, the path of least resistance is a clean beat with a guide that calibrates supply-and-demand cadence into FY26; that scenario typically supports resilience across platform peers. 

Remember NVDA’s recent beat streak (other than one-off miss) and the model’s drift stats: when prints and guides align, winners often trend for 10–20 sessions—size inside a beta-neutral book and let confirmation do the heavy lifting.

See how our model tracks the earnings beat, major commentaries, and corporate events daily since its last earnings release.

Sector Breakdown

Industrials wear the execution premium this week: construction/engineering and logistics/shipping stack bright green across caps—ACM in large; ROAD, ESLT in mid; POWL, SBLK, ESEA, ZIM in small—supported by price/mix discipline and backlog visibility. 

Tech & Comm Services are two-tone: platforms and compute lean green (NTES, BIDU, BABA, TCOM; PANW/VEEV/INTU in the constructive band), while peripherals and select China EV/software sit orange/red (KLIC, XPEV, NIO, ZKH, GLBE). 

Consumer is a barbell—brand executors and staples-adjacent names-JJSF 90%, LZB 78%, ENR 87%, BRBR 84% vs promo-sensitive e-commerce (GLBE 32%) and micro-cap “story” names (SBEV, SOAR, ASPI). Financials remain a barbell as well: steadier lenders/processors (QFIN 80%, GBDC 67%) versus consumer-credit and alternative-finance names nearer the middle of the tape. Health Care favors platforms over binary biotech—MDT, VEEV are in that guide-sensitive but constructive zone—while Energy/Materials are mixed with service names (HP, 46%) reminding us that utilization and day-rate commentary can flip the post-print path. Real Estate/Utilities still screen rate-sensitive: where green appears, it’s linked to logistics/data-center adjacency or regulated revenue visibility.

Market Cap Breakdown

Large caps skew constructive but idiosyncratic: the platform ADR pocket—ZTO, NTES, BABA, BIDU, TCOM—screens green on monetization discipline and cost control, while U.S. bellwethers like ACM (70%) and WMG (71%) sit in the higher-quality band; the 60-65% group (NVDA, VEEV, MDT, PANW, INTU, WMT, TJX, DE) is where guides, not prints, will dictate the reaction. 

🔝 Top Predicted Beats This Week

• POWL (Nov 18) – 95% – Industrials – Small Cap

• BV (Nov 19) – 94% – Industrials - Small Cap

• ZTO  (Nov 19) - 94% - Industrials - Large Cap

• ESLT (Nov 18) – 93% – Industrials -  Mid Cap

• LQDT (Nov 20) - 92% - Consumer Discretionary - Small Cap

• EH (Nov 17) - 91% - Industrials - Small Cap

🔻Top Predicted Misses This Week

• REBN (Nov 18) – 16% – Consumer Discretionary – Small Cap

• NCL (Nov 18 – 21% – Consumer Discretionary – Small Cap

• RMCO (Nov 21) - 28% - Financials - Small Cap

• SBEV (Nov 21) – 28% – Consumer Staples – Small Cap

• SOAR (Nov 17) - 29% - Industrials- Small Cap

• ASPT (Nov 18) – 29% – Materials – Small Cap

Weekly Heatmap

(As of November 13, 2025)

This week’s map is decisively dispersion-led: a broad green belt cluster where execution quality and backlog visibility dominate, while the red tail concentrates in funding-sensitive and promotion-dependent names. Small/mid industrials and platforms anchor the right side of the distribution—POWL (95%), LQDT (92%), EH (91%), SBLK (82%), ESEA (80%)—and mid-cap operators like ESLT (93%), ROAD (90%), ENR (87%). In large caps, ZTO (94%), NTES (88%), BABA (82%), BIDU (78%), TCOM (75%), XP (76%) extend the constructive tone, while the guide-sensitive 0.58–0.65 cohort (e.g., NVDA 65%, VEEV 63%, MDT 63%, PANW 63%, INTU 60%, WMT 59%, TJX 58%) will likely determine whether beats translate into follow-through. The left tail is loudest in small and select mid caps—HGEN (16%), NCL (21%), SBEV (28%), SOAR (29%), ASPI (29%)—where financing windows, unit economics, or margin carry-through look most fragile. 

If you need a fast screen: start with the top decile for staged longs and the bottom decile for hedges; the middle band should be sized to confirmation risk rather than pre-event conviction.

Click here or the following heat map to see an interactive version.

Next Week & Q4 Setup

Next week is guide-led, not print-led: the focal set sits in the 0.58–0.65 “prove-it” band—NVDA (65%) plus VEEV, MDT, PANW, INTU, WMT, TJX, DE—where the reaction function will hinge on supply cadence, pricing power, and FY26 visibility rather than headline beats; a clean NVDA guide would keep the platform complex bid and extend the constructive tone we already see in ZTO, NTES, BABA, BIDU, TCOM, while a muddier message preserves a stock-picker’s tape and funnels flows back into mid-cap execution. 

For Q4 positioning, the alpha density still lives in Mid (our right-tail cohort of ESLT 0.93, ROAD 0.90, ENR 0.87, BRBR 0.84, BZ/CAAP 0.85) versus a left-tail set of GLBE 0.32, ZKH 0.32, XPEV 0.36, NIO 0.42, VSTS/KLIC 0.43, where refinancing costs, operating leverage, and guide precision can cut sharply; that’s a ready canvas for beta-neutral pairs and drift books into year-end. Small caps remain the convexity frontier—POWL 95%, LQDT 92%, EH 91%, SBLK 82%, ESEA 80%, on the right tail versus HGEN 16%, NCL 21%, SBEV, SOAR, ASPI (28-29%), FTFT (36%)—so size to borrow/ADV and pre-stage exits as post-print drift can be outsized in both directions. 

Finally, keep a post-earnings drift sleeve: dispersion remains the friend into Q4.

Individual Stock Predictions

The model’s map stays dispersion-heavy across cap tiers, not directional: Large caps are idiosyncratic—platform ADRs and select services lean green, while a 58-65% “prove-it” band makes guidance the swing factor. Mid-caps show the sharpest gradients and richest alpha—execution-led Industrials and staples-adjacent Consumer cluster green, while refinancing / operating-leverage pockets skew orange/red. Small caps carry the most convexity. 

Large Caps

Large caps skew constructive but idiosyncratic: the platform ADR pocket—ZTO, NTES, BABA, BIDU, TCOM—screens green on monetization discipline and cost control, while U.S. bellwethers like ACM (70%) and WMG (71%) sit in the higher-quality band; the 60-65% group (NVDA, VEEV, MDT, PANW, INTU, WMT, TJX, DE) is where guides, not prints, will dictate the reaction.

MidCaps

Mid-caps are the alpha-dense tier: clean gradients support pairs such as long ESLT / ROAD / ENR / BRBR vs short GLBE / ZKH / XPEV / KLIC to express execution vs refinancing nd operating-leverage risk. This is also the sweet spot for drift models, where a confirmed beat can trend 10–20 sessions given prevailing positioning. 

Small Caps

Small caps carry the most convexity on both tails: the right-tail longs (POWL, BV 94%, LQDT, EH, UTI 86%, UUU 85%, RERE 82%, SBLK, DAO 81%, ESEA) need liquidity-aware sizing and tight exit rules, while the left-tail cohort (HGEN, NCL, SBEV, SOAR, ASPI, FTFT - 36%) is a ready source of event hedges. 

Next week & Q4

Large Cap: Focus shifts from mega-cap prints to retail and software, where guidance drives reactions more than results. In retail, margins—not comps—will matter most, with promo intensity and inventory discipline as key tells. In software, pay for visibility and pricing power—clean retention and credible AI monetization. NVDA remains the swing factor; supply cadence and mix will determine whether platform tech stays bid or reverts to selective stock-picking.

Mid Cap: Execution is still the alpha source—pricing power, backlog conversion, and cost control define the right tail. Treat pairs carefully; misaligned guides or refinancing costs can flip outcomes fast. Scale exposure only when guidance supports backlog strength, as this tier offers the best spread capture and post-print drift into Q4.

Small Cap: The high-volatility frontier continues—winners show unit-economics clarity and backlog carry-through, while laggards face funding strain and promotional fragility. Trade size to liquidity and plan exits early. Expect dispersion to widen through Q4 as tax-loss selling and refinancing timelines separate durable operators from momentum plays.

About the Model

Cmind AI’s EPS predictions are powered by a machine learning model built for accuracy, objectivity, and transparency. We ingest over 150 variables across six data modalities—including real-time 10-Q filings, earnings transcripts, governance metrics, and peer signals—to provide early, company-specific EPS forecasts.

Updated daily, our model covers 4,400+ public companies, with proven backtests demonstrating improvements in Sharpe and Sortino ratios across portfolios.

📩 To learn more, contact us at [email protected]