Cmind’s Edge: Bank Fees Reignite Financials | Q2 Accuracy Review

This week, alongside our latest EPS beat/miss forecasts, we share key insights from our Q2 accuracy review. The results affirm the strength of our model, particularly for large- and mid-cap names, and offer transparency into sector-level performance as we refine signals heading into Q4, 2025.

Q2 Accuracy Review

By Market Cap:

• Large Caps: >75% accuracy

• Mid Caps: >71% accuracy

• Small Caps: 65% accuracy

The model performs most strongly for larger companies, where richer and more complete data sets (e.g., disclosures, analyst coverage, governance metrics) help sharpen predictions. Small-cap predictions remain solid but naturally face greater noise given less consistent data availability.

By Sector: We grouped sector performance into three bands to contextualize accuracy amid differing volatility levels:

✅ Accuracy ≥ 65%:

• Information Technology

• Industrials

• Financials

• Consumer Staples

• Real Estate

• Health Care

⚠️ Accuracy < 65% and ≥ 60%:

• Communication Services

• Consumer Discretionary

• Energy

❗ Accuracy < 60%:

• Materials

• Utilities

These results highlight where our signals can provide stronger conviction and where we recommend caution or additional due diligence.

Big banks kick off the week with a constructive setup: deal and IPO calendars have thawed enough that fee lines should finally contribute. At the same time, market activity stays lively across FICC and equities. Street previews are leaning this way—large banks are expected to post stronger Q3 on an investment-banking rebound and firmer trading revenue—even as investors stay laser-focused on NII trajectories, deposit betas, and any fresh color on reserve builds. 

Consumer credit is still the swing factor; ALLY remains the clearest “auto cycle” tell. 

Industrials and logistics should read “slow but stable.” FAST gives an early PMI/procurement pulse; CASS offers a direct shipments proxy and working-capital lens; MRTN/IIIN speaks to freight mix and construction end-markets. The CASS data continue to signal a freight down-cycle versus the 2021–22 peak, with 2025 trending lower on shipments and spending, so institutions will key on stabilization and any green shoots in ticket size or lane mix. 

REITs remain a barbell. REXR’s Southern California industrial story still leans on embedded rent steps and healthy re-leasing spreads, even as broader LA/IE vacancy has normalized from ultra-tight lows; look for disciplined external growth. 

Healthcare should be steady-to-constructive with JNJ: investors will parse pharma momentum and MedTech cadence with FX as the main swing. True high-beta read comes next week.

Energy services (LBRT) are back to basics—utilization and pricing discipline first, with capital returns prioritized over fleet growth; it’s what institutions will want to hear again this print.

[Read the full outlook and predictions for all companies releasing this week]

As of Oct 10, 78% of S&P 500 reporters have beaten EPS (first 23 companies), with Q3 earnings growth tracking ~8–9% YOY (near 10% ex-Energy). This backdrop lowers the bar for “beat and raise” narratives in banks and high-quality industrials—so long as guidance doesn’t lean too hard into rate-driven NII compression or longer freight softness.

Stock Analysis

JPM, C, WFC, and BAC enter the week with a fees-over-NII setup: IB/trading have thawed, while deposit betas cap NII. Credit is the swing—watch reserve builds and early delinquencies. JPM leans on diversified fee engines and expense discipline; Citi on simplification progress and capital efficiency; Wells on NII glide path and cost controls; BofA on trading, wealth flows, and rate sensitivity.

Next quarter, the outlook is guidance: year-end deal closings could extend fee strength; buybacks hinge on Basel clarity and capital. Expect tighter expense frameworks and a case in which 2026 fee momentum offsets slower NII if credit stays orderly.

 Sector Breakdown

Financials lead with the highest concentration of positive signals, with ALLY, PNFP, JPM, BAC, C, WFC all in the categories of Very Likely & Likely. Industrials and Technology also outpace with predicted beats and Consumer Staples and Energy serve up the week’s earnings misses.

Market Cap Breakdown

Large caps are the strongest with Financials and Industrials reporting; JNJ, ALLY, IRSG, PNFP, JPM, C, BAC and WFC signal Very Likely.  

Mid-caps are modest with PNFP leading the way and MRTN and CASS are reporting the strongest as Very Likely in the small caps, showing the greatest dispersion for this week.

🔝Top 5 Predicted Beats This Week

• MRTN (Oct 16) – 97% – Industrials – Small Cap

• CASS (Oct 16) – 89% – Industrials – Small Cap

• IIIN (Oct 16) – 87% – Insutrials – Small Cap

• JNJ (Oct 14) – 87% – Healthcare – Large Cap

• IRSG (Oct 16) – 82% – Materials – Large Cap
  

🔻Top 5 Predicted Misses This Week

• WINA (Oct 15) – 10% – Consumer Discretionary – Small Cap

• LBRT (Oct 15) – 19% – Energy – Mid Cap

• MMLP (Oct 15) – 30% – Communication Services – Small Cap

• CCI (Oct 15) – 34% – Real Estate – Large Cap

• FAST (Oct 13) – 34% – Industrials – Large Cap

Weekly Heatmap

(As of October 12, 2025)

Green clusters dominate Financials, Industrials, and red patches in Energy and Consumer Staples. ALLY, JPM, C, BAC, WFC and PNFP for the Financials and MTRN, CASS, and IIIN are central in the Industrials group. WINA and LBRT are the weaker names in Consumer Discretionary and Energy, amplifying the downside.

Indvidual Stock Predictions

Large Caps

Ally, JP Morgan, BofA, Citi and Wells Fargo stand out with the Very Likely Beats, and JNJ, ISRG are the strongest in Healthcare, with the major prints coming next week. Financials have the Street’s highest expectations, and will extend into next quarter with tightening expense controls.

Mid Caps

The Financials lead the way and continue to benefit from the macro tailwind of rate sensitivity, helping the big banks. PNFP is the strongest (82) and BANF, HOMB, FHN, HWC, and WAFD are likely beats and benefiting from lower funding costs and stable credit. Looking ahead, all are facing CRE uncertainty for loan growth. LBRT (19%) and SLG (39%) are the highest miss predictions in the cohort.

Small Caps

The dispersion is the widest here. MRTN (97%), CASS (89%), and IIIN (87%) lead all names this week. The red flags for likely misses include —WINA (10%), MMLP (30%), and RMCF (38%). They are all idiosyncratic with expense/pricing pressures, with macro kickers heightening their downside potential.

About the Model

Cmind AI’s EPS predictions are powered by a machine learning model built for accuracy, objectivity, and transparency. We ingest over 150 variables across six data modalities—including real-time 10-Q filings, earnings transcripts, governance metrics, and peer signals—to provide early, company-specific EPS forecasts.

Updated daily, our model covers 4,400+ public companies, with proven backtests demonstrating Sharpe and Sortino ratio improvements across portfolios.

📩 To learn more, contact us at [email protected]