17 Earnings on Deck, But What’s Driving the Model?

Hi everyone,

While fewer companies are reporting this week, we’re shifting focus to a deeper question: What actually drives our EPS predictions?

Understanding these drivers can help investors go beyond the binary beat/miss and unpack why certain names are flagged. Below, we explore key sector-specific variables and preview what’s ahead in this quieter stretch of earnings season.

Prediction Drivers: What the Model Sees

Our EPS model draws on more than 150 financial, sentiment, and governance variables to forecast whether a company will beat or miss expectations. To quantify the impact of each factor, we apply a standard machine learning technique: feature importance via permutation. By shuffling each input one at a time and measuring the drop in model accuracy, we can identify which drivers matter most across sectors.

Among the top features this quarter:

• Risk Level of Inventories/Total Revenue (Q-1) stood out across Consumer Staples, Information Technology, and Utilities

• CFO-Bullishness, Operating Profit/Sales, and Net Income (Loss) ranked highly in Consumer Discretionary, Communication Services, and Industrials

• Beat/Miss Value (Q-1) and Actual EPS (Q0) continue to carry weight across sectors as core fundamentals

The full breakdown by sector is visualized below:

These inputs help contextualize why the model expects outperformance or downside, even before earnings are released.

This Week’s Predictions: Slim but Targeted

Seventeen companies are set to release earnings this week, with beat probabilities distributed across market caps:

Highlights:

• Large Caps: ACN (Accenture) leads with a strong 85% beat probability

• Mid Caps: RNW and WLY each post solid >69% probabilities

• Small Caps: LZB and CODA top the cohort, though dispersion is high, with ESLA and LVO showing risk of a miss

Across the board:

• Information Technology and Industrials remain the strongest sectors by beat count

• Consumer Discretionary and Health Care show a more balanced signal distribution

📈 Weekly Heatmap Snapshot

Cmind Interactive Heatmap For Week of June 9th, 2025

*Heatmap as of June 13th, 2025

Individual Stock Predictions

Large Caps

Accenture (ACN) leads this week’s large-cap cohort with a very likely beat at 85% probability, bolstered by ongoing strength in IT services and enterprise demand. Tenneco (TEN) follows with a likely beat at 64%, while Darden Restaurants (DRI) and Lennar (LEN) register on the likely and very likely miss ends of the spectrum, respectively, signaling caution in Consumer Discretionary. The group is small this week, but the signals are polarized, offering targeted trade setups.

Mid Caps

Mid caps show a more balanced signal spread. Renewable Energy Group (RNW) posts a 69% likely beat, driven by improving fundamentals and peer momentum. Wiley (WLY) also shows a 67% likelihood of a positive surprise, underscoring strength in Information Services. However, earnings for TH (Target Hospitality) and VRE (Veris Residential) trend toward likely misses, especially in more cyclical sectors like Real Estate and Industrials.

Small Caps

Small caps continue to reflect the most dispersion in signals. La-Z-Boy (LZB) and Coda Octopus Group (CODA) lead with marginal beat signals in the mid-50% range, while High Tide (HITI), RF Industries (RFIL), and Smith & Wesson Brands (SWBI) all sit just below the 50% threshold, indicating heightened uncertainty. Industrials and Consumer Discretionary dominate this tier, and the muted conviction suggests a week better suited for selective exposure.

About the Model

Cmind AI’s EPS predictor integrates over 150 variables—including 10-Qs, governance factors, transcripts, and peer signals—across 4,400+ public companies. Predictions are updated daily, and backtests show significant Sharpe and Sortino ratio improvements when used in portfolio construction.

To learn more, contact us at [email protected].