Deep Dive: Adobe Steps Up as Earnings Season Winds Down

Hi everyone,

As this earnings cycle tapers off, the volume of announcements is lower, but signal quality remains high. Cmind’s EPS Beats model flags 16 likely beats this week, including compelling conviction in names like ADBE and GTLB. The predicted miss side features notable Consumer Staples and Discretionary names, making this a week for tactical positioning rather than broad index plays.

We're also rolling out a new feature: sparklines, compact trendlines tracking each company’s EPS beat probability over time. These are now included in our individual predictions to provide added visibility into model dynamics.

Deep Dive: Adobe (NASDAQ: ADBE)

Earnings Date: Thursday, June 12 (pre-market)
Consensus EPS: $4.97
Cmind Beat Probability: 65% (Likely Beat)

Adobe Inc. is gearing up to report Q1 earnings against a backdrop of growing AI adoption in creative and productivity software. Our model assigns a 65% probability of a beat, supported by strong fundamentals and sector momentum.

The sparkline below visualizes Adobe's beat probability trajectory over the last 12 weeks:

Key inflection points:

• Liberation Day: A brief surge in confidence, aligning with bullish market sentiment.

• Nvidia earnings (May 28): Marked a structural pivot in AI-adjacent names; Adobe's score stabilized.

• Broadcom earnings (Jun 5): Offered sector confirmation, modestly lifting Adobe’s outlook.

Fundamental Strengths:
ADBE outperforms 75%+ of its competitors, including MSFT, ORCL, PLTR, and PANW—on metrics like:

• EBT/Equity

• Gross Profit/Sales

• Operating Profit/Sales

• EBT/Fixed Assets

• Analyst Sentiment

Its AI-native Firefly model, positioned as "commercial safe," adds a competitive edge across creative and productivity software.

Sector Breakdown

This week’s beat signals are strongest in:

• Information Technology: 12 beats vs. 3 misses

• Industrials and Consumer Discretionary: 6 beats each

• Balanced or high-risk sectors include Consumer Staples, Materials, and Health Care.

Market Cap Breakdown

• Large Caps: 7 predicted beats

• Mid Caps: 11 beats, 4 misses

• Small Caps: 10 beats, 6 misses