EPS Predictions: Nvidia, Mid-Cap Momentum, and Consumer Weak Spots

Hi everyone,

All eyes this week are on Nvidia (NVDA), which is set to release Q1 earnings after the close on Wednesday, May 28. Sentiment is mixed: investor concerns about Chinese export restrictions and new entrants like DeepSeek have weighed on the stock in recent months. Still, expectations are high with a consensus EPS of $0.93.

Our model’s latest prediction shows a moderate signal. Nvidia currently shows a beat probability above 60%, driven by favorable trends in gross margins, capex-to-revenue ratios, and analyst tone in recent earnings calls. 

Below, we break down updated earnings signals for the week across sectors and market caps, along with links to our full interactive heatmap and top 10s.

Market Snapshot

53 companies are reporting earnings this week. Here’s how beat vs. miss predictions shake out by market cap:

• Large Caps are the most skewed toward expected beats, with a 7-to-1 beat/miss ratio.

• Small Caps show more dispersion, particularly across Consumer and Materials names.

• Overall, our model predicts 43 beats and 10 misses.

Sector Outlook

• Information Technology dominates with 25 predicted beats, bolstered by strong signals in semiconductors and AI-linked infrastructure names.
  

• Financials and Health Care also post solid probabilities, while Consumer Discretionary and Materials show higher downside risk.

🔝 Top 5 Predicted Beats of the Week

• PATH (Thu, May 29) – 94% – Information Technology

• S (Wed, May 28) – 92% – Information Technology

• ICCM (Wed, May 28) – 90% – Health Care

• AMBA (Thu, May 29) – 90% – Information Technology

• BOX (Tue, May 27) – 86% – Information Technology

🔻 Top 5 Predicted Misses of the Week

• CLGN (Wed, May 28) – 31% – Health Care

• RRBG (Thu, May 29) – 39% – Consumer Discretionary

• BOSC (Thu, May 29) – 40% – Information Technology

• DSX (Thu, May 29) – 41% – Industrials

• JG (Thu, May 29) – 44% – Information Technology