Cmind’s Edge: Nike Earnings in Focus: Will Q1 Set the Tone for Consumer Discretionary?

Outside of Nike, several other bellwethers are worth attention. Carnival (CCL) kicks off the week Monday with a marginally positive signal (60% beat probability), while Paychex (PAYX) stands out as one of the strongest large-cap beats (77%). On the caution side, Jefferies (JEF) carries only a 26% beat probability, flagging financials as a weak spot. In Consumer Staples, United Natural Foods (UNFI) emerges as the strongest call of the week with an 88% probability of beating, while Conagra (CAG) tilts the other way at 40%.

Sector Breakdown

Industrials and Information Technology are showing the highest concentration of positive signals, with PAYX, APOG, TORO, PRGS, and TRAK all leaning toward beats. Consumer Staples is split, featuring both the week’s strongest call (UNFI) and several likely misses (CAG, CALM, SISI). Consumer Discretionary leans negative, driven by Nike, Vail Resorts, and Uxin. Financials are weak overall, with JEF dragging sentiment lower.

Market Cap Breakdown

Large caps are mixed, with Paychex flashing conviction but Nike and RPM at risk. Mid caps skew more negative, anchored by weak signals in JEF and MTN despite strength in PRGS and AYI. Small caps show the widest dispersion: UNFI, TORO, and APOG look strong, but VRAR, SISI, and INTG are flagged as likely misses.

🔝Top 5 Predicted Beats This Week

• UNFI (Sep 30) – 88% – Consumer Staples – Small Cap

• PRGS (Sep 29) – 81% – Information Technology – Mid Cap

• PAYX (Sep 30) – 77% – Industrials – Large Cap

• TORO (Sep 29) – 74% – Industrials – Small Cap

• APOG (Oct 3) – 72% – Industrials – Small Cap

🔻Top 5 Predicted Misses This Week

• JEF (Sep 29) – 26% – Financials – Mid Cap

• SISI (Sep 29) – 28% – Consumer Staples – Small Cap

• MTN (Sep 29) – 29% – Consumer Discretionary – Mid Cap

• CALM (Oct 1) – 30% – Consumer Staples – Mid Cap

• VRAR (Sep 30) – 32% – Information Technology – Small Cap

Weekly Heatmap

(As of Sep 28, 2025)

Green clusters dominate Industrials and select IT names, while Consumer Discretionary and Staples show notable red patches. Nike’s marginal signal is central in the discretionary group, with weaker peers like Vail Resorts and Uxin amplifying the downside.

Individual Stock Predictions

Large Caps

Paychex (77%) stands out with a high-conviction beat, while Nike (44%), RPM (39%), and Carnival (60%) present a mixed picture.

Mid Caps

Progress Software (PRGS, 81%) tilts positive, but Jefferies (26%) and Vail Resorts (29%) weigh on the group.

Small Caps

The dispersion is widest here. UNFI (88%) leads all names this week, joined by TORO (74%) and APOG (72%). However, multiple likely misses—VRAR (32%), SISI (28%), INTG (37%)—highlight risk within the cohort.

How Our EPS Beat Predictor Works

Cmind AI’s EPS predictions are powered by a machine learning model built for accuracy, objectivity, and transparency. It integrates five data modalities and over 150 variables—including historical financials, corporate governance factors, and earnings call transcripts—to generate early, company-specific forecasts. Predictions are updated daily following 10-Q filings, covering more than 4,400 publicly traded companies, far beyond the reach of most traditional analysts. Every forecast includes clear explanatory variables, offering not just a number, but insight. The model also enables trend analysis across tickers, sectors, indices, and portfolios—and backtesting shows it can significantly enhance investment performance, improving Sharpe and Sortino ratios.

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