Cmind’s read-through: the print matters, but the guide and CapEx sensitivity lens often decides the reaction | Dispersion elevated in small-cap left tails
Where probability is clustering, where it’s breaking, and the Top Movers (+/- 10 pts) driving dispersion | AAPL 91 / MSFT 86 / META 81 / TSLA 55
Heatmap - Financials stay green, Materials stay red | Feature: NFLX 72% is the first “reaction-function” mega-cap print.
Markets/IB tone matters more than the EPS line | Energy - TPET is the reddest name, 33%
Health Care leads the tape -- Industrials is the alpha pocket -- Energy/Materials carry the left tail.
How Cmind identifies expectation drift and pre-positions alpha before Q1 earnings begin.Week of December 29, 2025
Miss risk is clustering—what the model is flagging and what to watch | Feature: Q4 earnings recap - who was rewarded
Industrials lead the green tape, while Health Care and Financials stay fragile — guidance remains the swing factor.
Large-cap Tech looks constructive, small-cap convexity is back, and Consumer Discretionary is the funding leg of choice.
High-probability signals favor Industrials and Tech as volatility stays elevated.
Deere sets tone for Industrials; software/retail hinge on guidance into December.
Backlog and pricing power win (ESLT, ROAD, ENR); funding risk and leverage lose (GLBE, XPEV, HGEN).
